" Based on my analysis of Federal estimates, there are fewer than five unapprehended offenders of this description in the entire United States. What's the chances that 40% of them would operate in Lake Wobegon?" Well when you put it into that context, the chances would be slim. The thought occurs to me that a "public" figure (i.e. someone in any position of responsibility) would not have returned to the store to brag -- therefore, if the same suspect committed both crimes, it casts doubt that it would be someone from the abbey -- right?
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