"That would have made him approximately 63-68 years of age at the time of Josh's disappearance, which is fairly old for a violent sex offender" I know there are plenty of sex offenders in the 50's & 60s age range ... however, as you said, they don't seem to be in the violent category ... but let's say it was the same perpetrator -- if he was violent the first time, perhaps it would be natural for him to continue with what "worked" for him the first time. Further, perhaps he has also been involved in a series of other abductions in that area. I'm aware that some people think there is a serial killer who drowns his victims...
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